1) Microsoft thinks that the iPad is an ultrabook (or at least that's how they are going to price it), which it's not. In reality, that's exactly what you get with the Macbook Air (which I validated with a quick google search for 'ultrabook' - "a higher-end type of subnotebook"). The base model Macbook Air starts at $999 and runs up to $1499, and depending on who you ask has a profit margin between 38-37% profit margin. If one is inclined to look at let's say Newegg.com for Ultrabooks, one will see a price range of $799-$1300 through the gamut of OEMs. Microsoft is forced into this position because Apple is drinking it's milkshake in the low end laptop/ultrabook market, so Microsoft is losing Windows/Office sales.
2) Two models - According to MS, the Surface will come in two flavors - RT and Professional. The RT model is powered by an unspecified nVidia ARM proc and comes bundled with a copy of Office 15. The Professional model is powered by an Intel Core i3 processor and an active cooling system, so it's like having a tablet that also doubles as a hair dryer. With the iPad you get one model (different storage capacities and with or w/o a cell modem - rumors are that the Surface will be wifi only, but who the hell cares about that?)
3) Schizo OS - I have played with Windows 8, and all I can say is that it first the NIH's definition of schizophrenia to a t: http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmedhealth/PMH0001925/ - 'nuff said...and it isn't gonna have RFS like Server 2012...boo.
4) Design - Microsoft doesn't have this man:
Say what you will about Apple's prices, software, closed garden, blah blah blah. If you don't have this guy to design your hardware, you'll most likely end up with something fugly or designed by children in the medium of lego and is the size of a small aircraft carrier.
Let me sum up my argument with illustrations for all those out there who can't read:
All these combined equal:
The only way for Microsoft to honestly compete with the iPad is to compete on two fronts: 1) Price - sell it has a loss leader and make up the money with the apps/software (Office). 2) Sell software for the iPad - If Office is your cash cow, sell the damn thing on the iPad/iOS.
Surface??? ...what's that! Now that's part of the problem MS is not even on the radar in an already saturated tablet market. To further your analysis you have to evaluate Android too. I agree MS will have to be a loss leader for a long time to even gain a foothold like what xbox did in the video game market.
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