Smudgy screen with the subtlety of a hair dryer - Good Call HP

I have a feeling that HP is trying desperately to stay relevant these days, what with the recent news that it's planning on building an Intel based tablet with the Win8 Professional installed, and hold off on producing an ARM based Windows 8 RT version. 

This is a mixed bag for the following reasons, and I'll break it down with the good/bad/ugly.

The Good:

1) x86 is in HP's wheel house, they have never built on the ARM platform before so it's not unfamiliar territory here.

2) HP is trying, which is more than I can say for some companies (I'm looking at you Dell)

The Bad:

1) Cost - these are going to cost more than the iPad, and for what they are capable of doing it's not going to sell. Additionally Apple owns the supply chain for most tablet parts, so good luck getting a touch panel at a decent price, not to mention flash storage. Lastly, the price of the processor is going to kill any margin that one could hope to expect from it.

2) It's a Version 1 OS - there's an old saying with MS Software that it's usually not enterprise ready until Service Pack 2, so with Windows 8 that puts an install timeline of late 2013, by which time iOS 6 will be fully matured and iOS 7 will be in beta testing. 

3) It's Version 1 Hardware - see 'the bad' item #2 - the hardware might be good until version 2, at which point the iPad will be at #4 or possible #5

The Ugly:

1) It's going to be as quiet as a hairdryer going full blast - Intel procs run hot, thus requiring active cooling, otherwise it might have a core melt down (nobody likes burned palms). I don't know about you, but I enjoy being able to not worry about noise/heat while casually surfing the web. 

2) That power point presentation is going to look cloudy and smudgy with all the wing sauce on it - because you tried to use it after your power lunch and it'll be like trying to watch the most boring episode of law and order through a cellophane encased 10 inch tv. 

3) Nobody cares - Everyone wants an iPad, even the directors that will be making the purchasing decisions at your company

To sum up, I present you the following images (which could have saved you about 5-10 minutes of reading - suckers!)

Do laid off employees have regrets?

While it's refreshing to see a CEO admit mistakes, I wonder if Mr. Elop regrets the 10,000 additional layoffs, weak Lumia sales, plunging stock price, tarnished reputation, ejection of projects that were much beloved?
Or is it a sinister plot to weaken Nokia to the point where MS can step in and buy them, and bring phone production into a vertical integration scheme in an effort to emulate Apple? Tin foil hat wearers and yours truly see it that way, but I don't think it's any coincidence that an ex-MS exec would choose WinMo right after joining Nokia....

http://www.bgr.com/2012/06/14/nokia-layoffs-2012-vertu-restructuring/

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/weak-lumia-smart-phone-sales-haunt-nokia-2012-06-14?reflink=MW_news_stmp

http://www.bgr.com/2012/06/28/stephen-elop-interview-nokia-mistakes/

http://www.theregister.co.uk/2011/02/14/elop_not_an_ms_trojan/

Desperation is a stinky cologne

Looks like RIM is circling the drain...what with it considering using WinMo8, horrible Q1 revenue miss, OS 10 delayed until Q1 of 2013, layoffs galore. This is particularly sad given that RIM really pioneered the smartphone business and made a good/secure product.

Desperation truly is a stinky cologne.

http://www.bgr.com/2012/06/29/rim-microsoft-windows-switch-rumor/
http://www.informationweek.com/news/hardware/handheld/240002943
http://www.bgr.com/2012/06/28/rim-q1-2013-earnings-report-blackberry-revenue-profit-sales/

This is Microsoft, I don't know what I'm doing

Let me start out by saying that I appreciate what Microsoft is trying to do, and I don't think that enough emphasis can be put on the word 'trying'. They want to take on Apple's iPad mano y mano with the Surface, but for reasons that I will flesh out shortly, they are going to fail...so without further adieu:

1) Microsoft thinks that the iPad is an ultrabook (or at least that's how they are going to price it), which it's not. In reality, that's exactly what you get with the Macbook Air (which I validated with a quick google search for 'ultrabook' - "a higher-end type of subnotebook"). The base model Macbook Air starts at $999 and runs up to $1499, and depending on who you ask has a profit margin between 38-37% profit margin. If one is inclined to look at let's say Newegg.com for Ultrabooks, one will see a price range of $799-$1300 through the gamut of OEMs. Microsoft is forced into this position because Apple is drinking it's milkshake in the low end laptop/ultrabook market, so Microsoft is losing Windows/Office sales.

2) Two models - According to MS, the Surface will come in two flavors - RT and Professional. The RT model is powered by an unspecified nVidia ARM proc and comes bundled with a copy of Office 15. The Professional model is powered by an Intel Core i3 processor and an active cooling system, so it's like having a tablet that also doubles as a hair dryer. With the iPad you get one model (different storage capacities and with or w/o a cell modem - rumors are that the Surface will be wifi only, but who the hell cares about that?)

3) Schizo OS - I have played with Windows 8, and all I can say is that it first the NIH's definition of schizophrenia to a t: http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmedhealth/PMH0001925/ - 'nuff said...and it isn't gonna have RFS like Server 2012...boo.

4) Design - Microsoft doesn't have this man:

Say what you will about Apple's prices, software, closed garden, blah blah blah. If you don't have this guy to design your hardware, you'll most likely end up with something fugly or designed by children in the medium of lego and is the size of a small aircraft carrier.

Let me sum up my argument with illustrations for all those out there who can't read:

 

All these combined equal:

The only way for Microsoft to honestly compete with the iPad is to compete on two fronts: 1) Price - sell it has a loss leader and make up the money with the apps/software (Office). 2) Sell software for the iPad - If Office is your cash cow, sell the damn thing on the iPad/iOS.